Where things stand: No Illinois budget likely until 2016

State politicians will decide the fate of Chicago’s demand for more money, but a budget vote isn’t likely before January 2016.

Illinois politicians were supposed to pass a balanced budget by July 1, yet the state still has no budget. Now it looks like Illinois won’t have a budget until 2016, according to comments from Gov. Bruce Rauner and others.

These comments are bleak given that 2016 is still months away, but they may be accurate given the fact that the General Assembly Democrats, who could pass a budget immediately, have not demonstrated any inclination to do so for months.

The General Assembly is only scheduled to meet twice between Oct. 30 and the end of the year – on Nov. 10 and Dec. 2.

Before the end of the year, however, the General Assembly will consider whether to cave to Chicago’s demands of more state funding. The city of Chicago passed a budget on Oct. 28 that requires a major property-tax increase. To make the property tax progressive, Emanuel has put a bill before the General Assembly to expand the homestead property tax exemption to $14,000, which would largely shield owners of Chicago homes valued at $250,000 from the effects of the property-tax hike. This bill could have severe negative consequences for communities outside Chicago, though, and will likely see thorough debate when it is called.

Even though the General Assembly continues to meet sporadically to address bills like the exemption, none of its gatherings include public discussion and negotiation of the actual budget. These negotiations have been delegated to the five leaders of the state government including Rauner, Speaker of the House Mike Madigan, Senate President John Cullerton, Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno and House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, though they aren’t believed to have all gotten together in months.

The governor’s office has taken over organization of a meeting between the five leaders, which will take place on Nov. 18, and be made available to the public in some way – likely through online streaming.

This meeting was requested by a number of advocacy groups that offered to organize a place and time for a public meeting. This request reflects a general unrest in Illinois and lack of information regarding whether real negotiations are happening or not. Vague messages about the frequency and success of “productive discussions” have been a staple of the budget gridlock since May. Discouragingly, the governor has expressed skepticism that the meeting will lead to results. Concerning the leaders’ meeting, Rauner said: “I don’t think they’re going to offer compromises or creative solutions in front of a media negotiation. I just don’t think that’s likely.”

Illinoisans should not need to be reliant on this incredibly rare meeting as the one chance to get a budget deal. The General Assembly is the branch of state government tasked with passing a budget, and since the governor vetoed the General Assembly’s unbalanced budget in May, state politicians have not put forward another attempt at a holistic appropriations package. Democrats have the veto-proof supermajorities necessary in both chambers to pass a budget without passing the buck to the governor or the leaders’ likely unfruitful meeting. Yet there has been no attempt to put forward any comprehensive budget.

So while the three key dates – two General Assembly sessions and the meeting of leaders – are ones to look out for, little public optimism has been expressed about completing a budget deal before the end of the year. This should reflect more on the General Assembly Democrats that could get it done at either of their session dates than on the governor who can’t pass his own budget no matter how the upcoming meeting goes.