Tax hike budget is politically risky for Rauner, Illinois Republicans
A new poll shows Gov. Bruce Rauner’s political base opposes the tax hike budget proposal the governor has supported. And Illinoisans who favor the tax hike budget proposal do not support Rauner.
The political calculation behind Gov. Bruce Rauner’s embrace of the tax hike budget plan backed by certain Republicans in the Illinois General Assembly would seem to be one of self-preservation. The benefit of appearing to back a solution – even one with over $5 billion in economically damaging tax hikes – might seem to outweigh the risk of standing firm on pro-taxpayer principle.
But new polling results show otherwise. Illinois Policy commissioned an overnight poll of 500 Illinois likely voters, which Fabrizio, Lee & Associates conducted on June 20. Pollsters asked Illinoisans whether they favor a budget with tax hikes and minimal reforms – a plan the governor has indicated he will support – or whether they favor a budget that balances through spending cuts with no tax hikes.
The results reveal that in supporting a tax hike budget plan, the governor is pursuing a politically disadvantageous course. The budget the governor is backing is unpopular with his own base of support – and that same base prefers Illinois Policy’s vision of a state budget that balances through spending reforms without tax hikes.
Here are the key takeaways from the poll results:
- The governor’s support for a tax hike budget plan ignores the preferences of his coalition in return for no political advantage.
- The strongest correlation with support for the governor is support for Illinois Policy’s budget concept.
Illinois Policy’s preferred budget brings together a coalition that is much broader, much stronger and very much within Rauner’s power to win.
Poll results
The groups showing majority or plurality support for the tax hike budget proposal Rauner supports are:
- Whites
- Downstate Illinoisans
- Respondents ages 55-64
- Independents
- Respondents over age 65
- Democrats
- Liberals
- Females
The groups showing majority or plurality support for Illinois Policy’s preferred budget proposal are:
- Whites
- Downstate Illinoisans
- Respondents ages 55-64
- Respondents over age 65
- Independents
- Republicans
- Conservatives
- Males
- Hispanics
- Collar counties residents
- Respondents ages 35-44
- Respondents ages 45-54
Five groups appear in both lists. Of those, three – whites, downstate Illinoisans, and respondents ages 55-64 – support the Illinois Policy proposal more than they support the tax hike proposal that Rauner backs. Only two – independents and respondents over age 65 – support the tax hike proposal more, while also supporting the Illinois Policy-preferred proposal.
Attitudes toward the two budget plans show the political danger for the governor, and for any Republican or conservative lawmaker who supports a tax hike budget proposal.
Illinoisans who support the tax hike budget proposal are unlikely to support the governor. In fact, 48 percent disapprove of him, while only 34 percent approve. Of that same group, however, 48 percent approve of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, and 42 percent disapprove of the speaker.
By contrast, Illinoisans who oppose the tax hike proposal support the governor by a decisive majority of 57 percent approval to 42 percent disapproval. And 49 percent of them disapprove of the speaker, compared with only 43 percent who approve of Madigan.
By backing a tax hike budget plan, the governor risks alienating his supporters.
And consider respondents’ opinions on the Illinois Policy-favored budget proposal. Illinoisans who support that proposal are likely to support the governor – by a massive majority of 74 percent approval to 30 percent disapproval. That same group dislikes Madigan: 55 percent disapprove of the speaker, while only 29 percent approve.
However, Illinoisans who oppose the Illinois Policy budget proposal dislike the governor by a decisive majority of 56 percent disapproval to 17 percent approval. Among this group, Madigan enjoys a margin of 59 percent approval to 34 percent disapproval.
Implications of the poll results
The coalition of Illinoisans who prefer the Illinois Policy budget solution is much more representative of the governor’s own base than is the coalition of Illinoisans who prefer the tax hike budget solution. And the Illinois Policy budget coalition is broader and more robust than the coalition that prefers the tax hike budget plan.
It should come as no surprise that a budget proposal that includes over $5 billion worth of tax increases is unpopular. A statewide poll conducted in May by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates and commissioned by Illinois Policy revealed that nearly two-thirds of Illinoisans surveyed opposed a budget that included a state income tax hike.
Illinoisans are fundamentally anti-tax.
Embracing the tax hike budget proposal is politically dangerous for Rauner, whereas supporting the Illinois Policy budget concept is demonstrably advantageous to him. Of course, that political danger is not limited to the governor. The May poll’s questions on hypothetical candidates revealed that Illinoisans’ anti-tax sentiment extends to all officeholders and aspirants.
The June and May polling results confirm what should be obvious: The tax hike budget that the governor and Republicans in the Illinois General Assembly are advancing is toxic to Republican prospects.