Pritzker’s $1.5B in wishful thinking might leave taxpayers poorer

Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s record $55.2 billion budget for 2026 relies on more than $1.55 billion in newly increased revenue estimates to cover cost. That optimism collides with state agencies’ and experts’ sober predictions, meaning taxpayers are again at risk?

Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s record $55.2 billion Illinois state budget for fiscal year 2026 relies on more than $1.55 billion in boosted revenue estimates to cover the cost, but state reports suggest reality could be less rosy and leave taxpayers covering the difference.

Revised revenue predictions in the budget Pritzker released Feb. 19 show he expects the state to see $55.45 billion in revenue in the coming fiscal year, which starts July 1. Based on that, he proposed increasing state spending to an all-time high of $55.2 billion – up $2 billion from the current fiscal years’ $53.2 billion spending plan.

Pritzker’s hope runs up against estimates the state would only collect $53.4 billion from his own Governor’s Office of Management and Budget based on Illinois Department of Revenue data in November. Add to that, a stark forecast for the state’s economy predicted in February by Moody’s Analytics for the Illinois General Assembly’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.

“Illinois will underperform the region and the U.S. in 2025, with gross state product, employment, and income increasing less than elsewhere,” the report stated, noting Illinois’ unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in the fourth quarter, compared with 4.1% in the region and the nation.

The commission in January reported state revenues were flat when comparing FY 2024 and FY 2025 on a year-to-date basis.

Pritzker’s hope that state revenues will increase by more than $1.5 billion seems just that – hope. The state’s economic growth is expected to continue lagging. Revenues are flat. So where does his $1.55 billion come from?

Pritzker has promised to avoid tax hikes, but historically that’s where the money has come from to balance budgets that have grown $16.7 billion since before he took office.

Pritzker introduced more than $5.24 billion worth of new or higher taxes and fees on Illinois taxpayers during his first three years in office to cover the growing costs of state spending.

One year later, Pritzker proposed another $934 million tax increase on residents. The governor’s current state budget for fiscal year 2025 also relied on more than $1.1 billion in new or higher taxes and fees.

Illinois’ spending on core services has fallen 20%, when adjusted for inflation, between 2000 and 2022 as total state spending increased by 21%.

State lawmakers need not hope for $1.55 billion to materialize. The Illinois Policy Institute has proposed an alternative budget plan, Illinois Forward 2026, to bring long-term financial stability to the state and foster an environment in which families and businesses can thrive – growing the economy rather than adding taxes that drag it down.