Pritzker scorecard: Illinois’ governor failing on economy, taxes, education

Real-world outcomes for Illinoisans have dropped since Gov. J.B. Pritzker took office. The nation’s Democrats need to see where he’s taken Illinois before following his lead.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker was in the running to become Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, but his record in Illinois might have been why he became an also-ran.

Analysis of outcomes in Illinois under his leadership shows a laggard economy, worsening tax climate and declining educational outcomes since Pritzker took office in January 2019.

Economy

Many Illinoisans care most about economic trends and what these trends mean for them and their families. On virtually every economic metric, Pritzker has failed, particularly compared to other states.

Starting with the most basic of measures: Illinois’ population is in decline, and all this decline has been the result of domestic outmigration – Illinoisans fleeing the state. Illinois’ population has declined by 338,957 residents since mid-2018, the last estimate by the Census Bureau prior to Pritzker assuming office. Only New York has shrunk at a faster rate. This is essentially a vote of no confidence on the part of 338,957 people who used to live in Illinois.

Relative to other states, the number of new jobs created in Illinois is low – and this could be one of the reasons prime working-age people and their families are leaving. Illinois’ current 5% unemployment rate is the third highest in the nation. It is higher than the 4.6% unemployment rate Pritzker inherited when he took office. The growth in payroll jobs has been among the worst in the nation, ranking 43rd in total and even worse at 44th in the nation when it comes to growth in private-sector jobs.

Even for those Illinoisans who can find work, wages have been sluggish compared to their peers in other states. Wage growth in Illinois has been the fourth slowest in the nation since December 2018: only workers in Maryland, Virginia and Connecticut have seen their hourly pay grow slower. While it is often claimed Illinois is a high-income state, the data shows that is no longer true. Average wages in Illinois are $33.63 per hour, now in the bottom half of all states and ranking 28th in the nation. Before Pritzker took office, Illinois wages were 12th highest in the nation when adjusting for the cost of living in each state.

In other words, it is harder for Illinoisans to find a job than it is for residents in almost any other state in the country. When they do find jobs, they’re often lower-paying and offer slower wage growth than what their peers receive in other states. With results like that, it’s clear why so many Illinoisans are fleeing.

Taxes

Illinois’ business tax climate has also become increasingly hostile under Pritzker’s administration. Illinois’ business tax climate ranking has fallen eight places since 2018, and currently ranks 37th in the nation – worst among all neighboring states. Many neighboring states have improved their tax climates significantly in recent years. Indiana was the only other neighboring state to see their ranking decline since 2018, but it was a slight drop from a high ranking: from ninth place in 2018 to 10th place in 2024.

A major reason for Kentucky’s improved rankings were changes made to the state’s income tax in recent years. Kentucky approved a major overhaul of their individual income tax system in 2018, voting to replace their progressive income tax structure with a flat rate of 5%. Legislators also approved a plan to gradually lower the state’s income tax rate provided certain fiscal targets were met and the rate has since declined to a flat 4%. This is in direct contrast to Pritzker’s tax plans, which included a failed attempt to implement a progressive income tax like the one Kentucky overturned.

Similarly, Iowa has enacted recent changes to its state income tax to gradually flatten a progressive income tax structure over time. Its individual income tax, which previously had nine tax brackets, is in the process of being consolidated to a single flat rate of 3.9%. The change is reported to deliver a 26% reduction in income tax burden for the median household and cut taxes for 98% of Iowans with $10,000 or more in taxable income.

In 2022, Missouri passed reforms to its individual income tax to reduce income tax burdens and flattened its progressive tax structure from nine tax brackets into seven. Rates will continue to decline provided certain fiscal conditions are met. Wisconsin has also been gradually reducing income tax rates since 2019.

While Indiana’s positioning in the rankings slipped a little, that is mostly because of positive changes in other states rather than bad policy decisions in Indiana. Indiana is also currently in the process of lowering its flat income tax rate from the 3.23% seen in 2022 to 2.9% by 2027.

In total, 26 states enacted individual income tax cuts between 2021 and 2023, many of them did so multiple times and some created structures to continue reducing tax burdens on residents in the future. That has not been the case for Illinoisans, where the state has met revenue windfalls with higher spending.

Pritzker is big on taxes. He got 24 tax and fee hikes in his first three years, costing Illinoisans $5.24 billion. He put $56.5 million from his own pocket into a failed campaign to push through a $3.4 billion income tax hike in 2020 that would have replaced Illinois’ constitutionally protected flat income tax with a progressive income tax structure. Taxpayers rejected his proposal at the ballot box. His most recent budget for fiscal year 2025 included $1.1 billion in tax hikes and set a state spending record at $53.1 billion – $15 billion more than when Pritzker took office.

Education

In addition to lackluster economic outcomes and a worsening tax environment compared to peers, Pritzker has also overseen a decline in educational outcomes for Illinois students. Academics got worse despite the state spending $2.5 billion more on public schools annually.

Student proficiency is down across the board since the 2018-2019 school year. Reading proficiency for third-eighth graders has declined 6.3% since Pritzker took office while 11th-grade reading proficiency has dropped by 13.7%.  The biggest losses came in math scores, with third- through eighth-grade proficiency declining 14.8% and 11th-grade proficiency down 22.4% under Pritzker.

Part of the decline in proficiency is likely thanks to the large spike in chronic absenteeism among students. Today more than 28% of students are chronically absent, an increase of 61.7% compared to the 2018-2019 school year. Absenteeism is most pronounced among Illinois’ Black students, with more than 42% of the students chronically absent in the 2022-2023 school year.

Students in Illinois schools should receive quality teaching which prepares them to flourish in life after graduation. Since Pritzker took office, an increasing number of these students are struggling to meet grade-level standards in Illinois public schools while many have become chronically absent from the classroom.

Under Pritzker’s leadership, Illinois students and their families have struggled, often while their peers in other states have thrived. Luckily for the rest of the nation, Pritzker is unlikely to be a candidate for national office in the immediate future. Unfortunately for Illinoisans, that means he remains here.