PRESS RELEASE from the
ILLINOIS POLICY INSTITUTE

CONTACT: Micky Horstman (312) 607-4977

Analysis: Houston could overtake Chicago as No. 3 largest U.S. city by 2035
New census data shows population loss plagues 75% of Illinois communities, with Chicago losing the most

CHICAGO (May 16, 2024) – Illinois’ population loss hit more than 75% of its cities, towns and villages in 2023. Chicago suffered the largest decline, losing 8,202 residents last year, according to data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

An analysis by the Illinois Policy Institute found Chicago will be overtaken by Houston as America’s third-largest city by 2035 if recent population trends hold.

Among major cities, Chicago suffered the third-largest decrease in the nation, with only New York and Philadelphia losing more residents. This brings Chicago to over 82,000 residents lost since the 2020 census.

Population decline by city size: 

• Small communities with under 10,000 residents lost population at a rate of -2.7 per 1,000 residents. Communities that lost residents included Itasca, Sauk Village and Monmouth.
• Communities with between 10,000 and 25,000 residents that lost residents included Kankakee, Morton Grove and Carbondale. People left at an average of -1.7 per 1,000 residents.
• Mid-sized communities with 25,000 to 50,000 residents losing population included Belleville, Urbana and Wilmette. The average rate was -.097 per 1,000 residents.
• Cities with 50,000 to 100,000 residents such as Waukegan, Cicero and Decatur saw residents leave at a rate of -5.2 residents per 1,000 people on average – the fastest rate of population decline.
• Big cities with over 100,000 residents that lost residents included Aurora, Rockford and Springfield. On average residents left at a rate of -2.5 per 1,000 people.

“Migration slowed nationwide following surges in state-to-state moves during the pandemic, but still Chicago had the third-largest population loss in 2023. At this rate, Chicago only has about a decade left as the nation’s third-largest city,” said Bryce Hill, director of fiscal and economic research at the Illinois Policy Institute. “Polling shows residents are deeply concerned about crime, migrant spending and taxes in Chicago. Unless the city and state make major changes, Illinois will continue to lose residents and businesses – worsening the financial problems for those residents unable to leave.”

Illinois is the only state among its neighbors to suffer population loss. Data shows residents are leaving for states with lower taxation, including Florida and Texas.

To read more about Illinois’ outmigration crisis, visit illin.is/2023losses.

For bookings or interviews, contact media@illinoispolicy.org or (312) 607-4977