The Policy Shop: More crime, fewer arrests in Chicago

This episode of The Policy Shop is by writer Patrick Andriesen

Two recent reports show Chicago leaders are ignoring or downplaying an issue that can cost them money, residents and reputation: violent crime.

Violent crime in Chicago increased by 11.5% in 2023, but the city’s arrest rate dropped compared with 2022.

Standing out in a batch of disturbing statistics are robberies. Reported incidents jumped by 33% last year.

Robberies had been on a long decline, but in recent years have increased rapidly. That makes another trend especially troubling: the arrest rate for robberies fell to a 23-year low of just over 5%.

A big part of the problem is we’re not arresting the people who commit crimes or processing them effectively, meaning offenders repeatedly create new victims.

There has been an 18% increase in violent crimes and a 33.7% decline in the number of arrests since 2013. The share of violent crimes resulting in an arrest has nearly halved, dropping from 19% in 2013, to nearly 11% in 2023.

So, why’s this happening now?

• Blame COVID lockdowns and school closures aggravating truancy.
• Blame legislation such as the SAFE-T Act, mainly by ending cash bail and imposing additional requirements on prosecutors seeking to detain defendants before trial.
• Blame Mayor Brandon Johnson for eliminating 833 street-cop vacancies, which continues the dismantlement of the Chicago Police Department started when Mayor Lori Lightfoot cut 614 positions.

That last issue is also key to the solution.

While there are many factors that contribute to the rise and fall in violent crime, police officer strength is the most critical. When police strength significantly increases, the number of murders and other violent crimes decline. When it decreases, the numbers rise.

That was what happened during the Mayor Richard M. Daley, Rahm Emanuel and Lightfoot administrations. Now it’s happening as Johnson further reduces police officer numbers.

Johnson’s view of the problem may be obscured by his police protection detail and the “defund the police” rhetoric of his cronies at the Chicago Teachers Union, including taking officers from the remaining city schools regardless of local conditions or desires. But Johnson is at Ground Zero for the violent crime that exploded last year.

The Austin neighborhood where he grew up and lives saw 793 robberies last year. That means 1 out of every 122 of his neighbors was a robbery victim, and that was just during 2023. Citywide was little better, with a robbery victim for every 250 Chicagoans.

If people are allowed to commit crimes without fear of punishment, they commit more crimes. You can’t punish unless the criminals are caught, and that means adequately staffing the Chicago Police Department.

According to a Lincoln Poll in January, 2 of every 3 voters somewhat or strongly disapproved of Johnson’s handling of crime. In October they were already telling him they wanted more police, not fewer.