New evidence suggests health-exchange enrollment is rapidly declining

It’s been months since the end of ObamaCare’s first open-enrollment period and another is just around the corner in November. But as Illinois officials gear up for the second enrollment period, which begins in November, there is early evidence pointing toward more trouble ahead for the health-care overhaul. The state’s original goal was to enroll...

It’s been months since the end of ObamaCare’s first open-enrollment period and another is just around the corner in November. But as Illinois officials gear up for the second enrollment period, which begins in November, there is early evidence pointing toward more trouble ahead for the health-care overhaul.

The state’s original goal was to enroll 486,000 into the ObamaCare health-insurance exchange. Only 217,000 Illinoisans enrolled – fewer than half that goal. But the federal government and state officials have yet to reveal the number of enrollees who have actually paid for a plan. In fact, the Obama administration has stopped reporting enrollment numbers altogether.

But based on one insurer’s estimates and a new report from Florida, ObamaCare exchange enrollment is likely experiencing serious attrition.

Aetna, which is the nation’s third-largest insurer, is estimating that 30 percent of the “enrollees” either never paid their first month’s premium or will have stopped paying by year’s end. While other insurers’ experiences might be different, the number of actual enrollees seems to be on a rapid decline.

According to the Florida Department of Insurance, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services was reporting a health insurance exchange enrollment of 983,775 in the state. But the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation is now reporting that, as of June 30, there were 762,723 members enrolled in exchange plans.

In other words, Florida “lost” 22 percent of its enrollees from the number originally reported by the administration. While some of this attrition could be due to the normal market churn (obtaining coverage through a new job or relocating to another state), this high attrition rate likely reflects duplicate enrollments reported by the government, individuals never paying their first month’s premium and people deciding to drop coverage.

Since Illinois has yet to reveal the number of enrollees who have actually paid for a plan, we still don’t know who has actually obtained coverage. But assuming the state is facing similar attrition rates, actual paid enrollment could be somewhere between 150,000 to 170,000; or 30 to 35 percent of Illinois’ original goal.

Health-care reform should be evaluated on the promises that were originally made. It is long past time for the Obama administration and state insurance commissioners to come clean on how many people are actually covered as a result of the overhaul.