International migrants boost Illinois, New York, California populations, but don’t expect them to stay
Illinois and other states with sanctuary cities saw large influxes of international migrants in recent years. But historical data shows the new arrivals may soon move out for the same reasons other residents have.
Sanctuary city declarations appear to have boosted populations for Illinois and other states, but unless political leaders improve the tax, job and housing climates, these new arrivals from other countries may soon head to other states – just like others have and for the same reasons.
Illinois’ population grew by 67,899 residents from July 2023-June 2024, according to the most recent estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. This marked the first time in 11 years the Census Bureau estimated the population had grown for the state of Illinois, although the bureau revised figures for 2023 to show growth that year as well.
The same phenomena occurred in other states. New York’s population increased by nearly 130,000 in 2024. California’s population grew by nearly 233,000 last year. Both states and Illinois had been losing residents as recently as 2022.
Population declines in each state peaked in 2021. California lost nearly 380,000 residents, New York lost nearly 257,000 residents and Illinois lost more than 98,000 residents in that year alone.
The cause of this rapid turnaround in population trends? A massive influx of international migrants that began in 2022 and increased through 2024. Last year, international migration added 361,000 residents in California, 207,000 residents in New York, and nearly 113,000 residents in Illinois.
Those figures are a big increase in international migration compared to pre-pandemic averages. In Illinois, international migration spiked 4.6 times higher in 2024 than the 2010-2020 average. The spike in New York was 2.9 times the prior decade’s average, while international migration spiked 3.7 times higher in California. Nationwide, international migration was responsible for 84% of all population growth in 2024.
While some, such as Gov. J.B. Pritzker, misconstrued this data to suggest Illinois had finally bucked its near decade-long trend of population decline, his interpretation ignores the fundamental realities of Illinois’ population trends. Illinois’ population is declining because residents are fleeing to other states where they can better prosper. While a temporary boost in international migration may blunt the losses, they will resume unless state and local governments pursue major reforms.
The boost to the state’s population via influxes of international migrants may only be temporary. They, too, have been leaving.
From 2010-2020, foreign-born Illinoisans accounted for more than 103,000, or 10.7%, of the state’s total population losses to other states. Foreign-born residents moved to and from Illinois at similar rates as native-born residents.
In other words, the recent boost in Illinois’ population from international migrants may just add to domestic outmigration in future years.
This makes sense, as all Illinoisans face the same underlying factors that have made Illinois a difficult place to buy a home or find a job. Illinois is home to the second-highest property taxes and the third-highest unemployment rate in the nation. Public policy choices have contributed to these unfavorable conditions.
In surveys that did not include taxes as a possible response, those who have left Illinois said the major reasons were for better housing and employment opportunities. When taxes were a permitted response, high taxes were the No. 1 reason why Illinoisans considered leaving. Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61% of Illinoisans thought about moving out of state in 2019, and the No. 1 reason was taxes. The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute in 2016 found 47% of Illinoisans wanted to leave the state, and “taxes are the single biggest reason people want to leave.” More recent polling conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute in 2023 substantiated those sentiments.
While Illinois’ population growth is welcome news, ignoring the underlying trends and the reasons for this sudden change would be irresponsible. If state leaders refuse to acknowledge why Illinoisans are leaving – taxes and business regulations that make life harder – then today’s international arrivals will simply become tomorrow’s departures.