Illinois ranks 48th for people moving out, loses over 56K residents

Illinois ability to keep its residents is third from the bottom. Only California and New York have more people moving to other states.

Illinois’ population grew last year, according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. But it was thanks to a massive influx of international migrants, not because the state was drawing in people from other states.

Previous trends of Illinoisans choosing to move to other states continue to hold in Illinois. The state is pushing more of its own residents to other places in the country than virtually any other state, ranking 48th in losses from domestic migration.

When comparing all 50 states’ 2024 domestic migration figures, Illinois’ loss of 56,235 is only beaten by California, losing 239,575, and New York, losing 120,917. Even when considering population size, Illinois ranks 46th in domestic migration with only Alaska, California, New York and Hawaii losing residents to other states at a faster rate.

Surveys of those who have left the state – where taxes are not a response option – showed the major reasons Illinoisans have chosen to leave have been for better housing and employment opportunities, both of which have been made worse by poor public policy in Illinois.

High taxes were the No. 1 reason why Illinoisans considered leaving the state. Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61% of Illinoisans thought about moving out of state in 2019, and the No. 1 reason was taxes. The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found 47% of Illinoisans wanted to leave the state, and “taxes are the single biggest reason people want to leave” with 27% of respondents citing taxes as the motive for departing in 2016. More recent polling conducted by Echelon Insights in 2023 substantiated those sentiments.

Unfortunately, there have been renewed proposals by state lawmakers to eliminate Illinois’ constitutionally protected flat income tax, which would likely only exacerbate the state’s tax burden. Senate Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 04, introduced Feb. 5 by state Sen. Robert Martwick, D-Chicago, and a similar constitutional amendment filed in the Illinois House, House Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 08, filed by state Rep. Curtis Tarver, D-Chicago, both seek replace Illinois’ flat income tax with progressive income tax structures.

When comparing states based on income tax structures, those with flat or no income tax attract the most residents, while those with progressive income taxes tend to push them away.

Of the 23 states that are losing residents to domestic outmigration, 16 of them, or 70%, have progressive income taxes. Only 11, or 41%, of the 27 states that gained residents from other states last year have progressive income taxes.

Among all states, those without state individual income taxes added more than 218,00 domestic migrants last year. States with flat income taxes added nearly 84,000 residents from other states even when including Illinois, which lost more than 56,000 residents to domestic outmigration. States with progressive income taxes lost more than 302,000 residents through domestic outmigration.

State lawmakers should pay attention to the common themes among states that are growing, or shrinking, because of domestic migration. If state leaders refuse to acknowledge these realities and ignore why so many Illinoisans are leaving – taxes and business regulations that make life harder – the state can expect to see the continued exodus of residents to other states.