Illinois is Midwest’s biggest people loser

Most neighboring states are gaining residents from people moving across state lines. Even of the states losing people, Illinois is losing at a significantly faster rate.

Illinois lost 56,235 residents to other states on net from July 2023-June 2024 – one resident every nine minutes and 21 seconds – according to recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

None of Illinois’ neighbors are losing residents at anywhere near that pace. In fact, Missouri, Kentucky, Wisconsin and Indiana each gained residents via domestic migration last year.

Michigan and Iowa were the only neighboring states to lose residents. But Illinois’ population decline because of domestic migration is occurring at a far faster rate – nearly six times faster than in Michigan (-0.76 net outmigrants per 1,000 residents) and more than 62 times faster than Iowa (-0.62 net outmigrants per 1,000 residents).

It’s not the weather that’s contributing to Illinois’ outmigration crisis, as most other neighbor states are growing their populations by attracting residents from other states. Missouri added nearly 12,300 residents from other states; Kentucky added almost 7,300; Wisconsin gained more than 6,300; and Indiana picked up more than  4,250 domestic movers.

Iowa is nearly breaking even on domestic migration, losing only 231 residents last year. Michigan, the only other neighboring state losing residents to outbound moves, shed nearly 7,700 residents. Those figures pale in comparison to Illinois’ loss of more than 56,000 residents to other states last year alone.

Illinois isn’t just a regional outlier either. Population change because of domestic migration in Illinois is among the worst in the nation, ranking 48th among all states.

When comparing all 50 states’ 2024 domestic migration figures, Illinois’ loss of 56,235 is only beaten by California, losing 239,575, and New York, losing 120,917. Even when considering population size, Illinois ranks 46th in domestic migration with only Alaska, California, New York and Hawaii losing residents to other states at a faster rate.

Surveys of those who have left the state – where taxes are not a response option – showed the major reasons Illinoisans have chosen to leave have been for better housing and employment opportunities, both of which have been made worse by poor public policy in Illinois.

High taxes were the No. 1 reason why Illinoisans considered leaving the state. Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61% of Illinoisans thought about moving out of state in 2019, and the No. 1 reason was taxes. The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found 47% of Illinoisans wanted to leave the state, and “taxes are the single biggest reason people want to leave” with 27% of respondents citing taxes as the motive for departing in 2016. More recent polling conducted by Echelon Insights in 2023 substantiated those sentiments.

Unfortunately, there have been renewed proposals by state lawmakers to eliminate Illinois’ constitutionally protected flat income tax, which would likely only exacerbate the state’s tax burden. Senate Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 4, introduced Feb. 5 by state Sen. Robert Martwick, D-Chicago, and a similar constitutional amendment filed in the Illinois House, House Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 8, filed by state Rep. Curtis Tarver, D-Chicago, both seek replace Illinois’ flat income tax with progressive income tax structures.

These proposals would likely exacerbate Illinois’ outmigration crisis because as a group, states with progressive income tax structures are the only ones losing residents on net.

State lawmakers should pay attention to the common themes among states that are growing, or shrinking, because of domestic migration. If state leaders refuse to acknowledge these realities and ignore why so many Illinoisans are leaving – taxes and business regulations that make life harder – the state can expect to see the continued exodus of residents to other states.