Chicago violent crime up 8% through May, spurred by spike in robberies

Chicagoans reported 7.8% more violent crime from June 2023 through May 2024, led primarily by a spike in robberies. West and South Side residents bore the brunt of the increase as arrest rates continued to decline.

Chicagoans experienced 7.8% more violent crime from June 2023 through May 2024 than during the previous 12 months, with cases of robbery driving most of the surge.

Residents reported 29,377 violent crimes through May. But as cases of violent crime increased, the arrest rate for these felonies dropped to just 10.8%, the lowest level in the past five years.

Overall, robberies were the most common violent crime, accounting for over 37% of all reported incidents. Batteries and assaults comprised an additional 54% of cases.

Cases of robbery increased the most of any violent crime in Chicago during the past 12 months, with reports of incidents increasing 16.2%. This has driven in part by the rise of coordinated robbery sprees in some of the city’s traditionally safest neighborhood.

Compounding this alarming trend, the city’s arrest rate for robberies also fell to its lowest level in the last five years with just 1-in-20 cases resulting in an arrest.

And depending on what time the victim was robbed, the chances of catching that bad actor could fall even further.

An analysis of robbery patterns over the past 12 months reveals a clear trend in the timing behind these violent crimes. Robberies typically peak around 9 p.m. and gradually decrease to their lowest levels by 8 a.m.

However, only 3.9% of robberies resulted in an arrest during the peak hour, while during the lowest crime hour, the arrest rate rose to 7.8%.

Reports of robbery by Chicago neighborhood also reveal a stark disparity. Nearly two-thirds of robberies between June 2023 and May 2024 occurred on the city’s South and West Sides.

The West Side bore the brunt of these crimes with Mayor Brandon Johnson’s home neighborhood of Austin reporting the most robberies of any community, followed by the neighboring community of Garfield Park.

Hispanic Chicagoans were notably 2.5 times more likely to be victims of a robbery compared to White Chicagoans, while Black Chicagoans were 2 times more likely to be targeted.

White Hispanic Chicagoans were also the most frequent victims of robberies, making up 39.4% of cases over the last year, followed by Black residents at 31.6%.

According to a Lincoln Poll in January, 2 of every 3 voters somewhat or strongly disapproved of Johnson’s handling of crime.

Chicagoans shouldn’t be forced to choose between having fewer police officers on the streets and reducing social services to support the city’s at-risk residents. Instead, city leaders should balance short- and long-term strategies to target the violence plaguing Chicago’s most vulnerable communities.

Addressing violent crime starts with reducing the city’s police officer shortage, putting more officers on local beats and ensuring witness protection so police are able to obtain vital information needed to identify and pursue criminals.

Longer-term solutions cannot work unless today’s crimes are addressed and Chicagoans – like the ones living in Mayor Brandon Johnson’s neighborhood – stop living in fear.