Chicago area gets over 96K international migrants in 2024; 238K since 2020

Chicagoland’s population has been boosted by international migrants in recent years. But 347,000 residents left for other states since April 2020.

The Chicago metropolitan area’s population grew by 70,762 residents last year, primarily thanks to more than 96,000 new international arrivals.

International arrivals totaled 238,000 since the last full population count in April 2020, according to estimates released March 13 by the U.S. Census Bureau. That influx wasn’t enough to offset the loss of 45,787 Chicago area residents who moved to other areas of the country during that time.

The area’s population is still experiencing natural increases, with 19,388 more births than deaths between July 2023 and July 2024, and nearly 62,000 cumulatively since April 2020. But 347,466 people moving out of state has still caused population to decline relative to 2020 levels. In total, the Chicago metropolitan area’s population has declined by nearly 46,000 residents since April 2020 despite the massive influx of international migrants.

While substantial increases in international migration boosted the city’s population in 2024, the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metropolitan area only ranked ninth nationally for numeric population growth. The New York, Houston, Dallas and Miami metro areas each added more than 100,000 to their population totals last year.

Eight of the nine other metro area across the state also experienced population growth from July 2023-July 2024, almost entirely driven by increased international migration. However, all metro areas in the state are experiencing population losses from residents moving to other parts of the country. Decatur was the only metro area in the state to experience population decline, losing an estimated 17 residents last year.

The latest Census Bureau estimates also included data for population change among Illinois’ 102 counties. Of the 102 counties, 64 saw population declines from July 2023-July 2024, while domestic outmigration affected 61 counties.

The largest population losses occurred in St. Clair, Vermillion and Madison counties. Meanwhile, Alexander, Calhoun and Pulaski counties experienced the fastest rates of population decline relative to the size of their population.

Cook, DuPage, Will and Lake counties added the largest number of residents last year. Kendall, Champaign and Ford counties grew at the fastest rates relative to their populations.

Generally speaking, population losses are hitting Illinois’ more rural areas. Moves to other states are acting as a drag on both rural and urban populations across the state.

When comparing all 50 states’ 2024 domestic migration figures, Illinois’ loss of 56,235 is only beaten by California, losing 239,575, and New York, losing 120,917. Even when considering population size, Illinois ranks 46th in domestic migration with only Alaska, California, New York and Hawaii losing residents to other states at a faster rate.

Surveys of those who have left the state – where taxes are not a response option – showed the major reasons Illinoisans have chosen to leave have been for better housing and employment opportunities, both of which have been made worse by poor public policy in Illinois.

High taxes were the No. 1 reason why Illinoisans considered leaving the state. Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61% of Illinoisans thought about moving out of state in 2019, and the No. 1 reason was taxes. The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found 47% of Illinoisans wanted to leave the state, and “taxes are the single biggest reason people want to leave” with 27% of respondents citing taxes as the motive for departing in 2016. More recent polling conducted by Echelon Insights in 2023 substantiated those sentiments.

Unfortunately, there have been renewed proposals by state lawmakers to eliminate Illinois’ constitutionally protected flat income tax, which would likely only exacerbate the state’s tax burden. Senate Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 04, introduced Feb. 5 by state Sen. Robert Martwick, D-Chicago, and a similar constitutional amendment filed in the Illinois House, House Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 08, filed by state Rep. Curtis Tarver, D-Chicago, both seek replace Illinois’ flat income tax with progressive income tax structures.

When comparing states based on income tax structures, those with flat or no income tax attract the most residents, while those with progressive income taxes tend to push them away.

State lawmakers should pay attention to the common themes among states that are growing, or shrinking, because of domestic migration. If state leaders refuse to acknowledge these realities and ignore why so many Illinoisans are leaving – taxes and business regulations that make life harder – the state can expect to see the continued exodus of residents to other states.