Chicago population hits lowest point since 1920

At the 1920 Census, Chicago’s population was 2.7 million, up over 516,000 in a decade. More than 100 years later, Chicago’s population is 2.66 million, a loss of 128,034 from nine straight years of decline.

Chicago’s population is lower now than it was in 1920, with steady drops in each of the past nine years.

According to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates, Chicago’s population was 2,664,452 in July 2023. Chicago’s population has not been this low in more than 100 years.

At the 1920 Census, Chicago’s population was counted at 2,701,705, an increase of more than 516,000 since the 1910 Census which pegged the city population at just under 2.2 million. Fast forward more than 100 years and Chicago’s population is at lower levels now than it was then.

While Chicago’s population increased rapidly in the first half of the 20th century, the population peaked in 1950 at just over 3.62 million residents. Since then, the city population has declined: steadily from 1950-1990, then a fluctuating drop since 1990.

Currently, Chicago is on a nine-year losing streak. The U.S. Census Bureau has estimated Chicago’s population has declined each year since 2014, losing 128,034 residents.

From July 2022-July 2023, Chicago lost more than 8,000 residents, the third-largest decline of any city in the nation. If post-pandemic population trends hold, Chicago will soon be overtaken by Houston for the title of America’s third-largest city.

Population loss in Chicago – and Illinois in general – can be attributed to one cause: people moving out. More people are moving out of the city than are moving in. While international migration continues to be a boon to population counts and births still outpace deaths, Chicago’s population decline is because Chicagoans are leaving.

The latest data from the Census Bureau confirms Illinois’ outmigration and population crises are ongoing and continue to plague the state and Chicago. While politicians have disputed the numbers, Illinois’ population loss and outmigration crises have been continuously affirmed by data from the U.S. Census Bureau, IRS, as well as U-Haul, United Van Lines and Allied Van Lines moving companies.

While the new city-level data does not break down population change by components such as domestic and international migration, births and deaths, Illinois’ population declines during the past decade have been solely attributable to domestic outmigration. The same is very likely true for Chicago – the city’s population is declining because residents are fleeing.

When taxes were not a response option, surveys of those who have left the state showed the major reasons were for better housing and employment opportunities. The Chicago metro area’s unemployment rate is the highest in the nation among large metropolitan areas and Illinois unemployment remains well above the U.S. average.

Both housing and employment opportunities have been damaged by poor public policy in Illinois.

Last year, polling conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute showed 34% of Chicagoans would leave the city if given the opportunity, with 39% of those who said they would move citing taxes and affordability as a reason.

Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61% of Illinoisans thought about moving out of state in 2019, and the No. 1 reason was taxes.

Despite repeated evidence of population decline being driven by a hostile tax environment that does little to foster job and housing opportunities for residents, Mayor Brandon Johnson is boosting his calls to raise taxes on Chicagoans.

Voters rejected Johnson’s signature real estate transfer tax hike at the polls in March, but the mayor has said he hasn’t given up on raising $800 million in new taxes. Johnson on May 8 was in Springfield seeking $1 billion in additional funding from the state for Chicago Public Schools, $900 million in bond funding for a new Bears stadium, increased funds to remove lead service lines and additional tax revenue to be shared with the city.

Rather than hiking taxes on a struggling city, Johnson’s focus should be on rehabilitating his relationship with the city’s business community and finding sustainable solutions to reversing Chicago’s high unemployment and population decline.