Facing facts: the numbers show Illinois is losing people

Illinois loses one resident every 10 minutes to net out-migration. It should be no surprise that people are fleeing Illinois. Illinois ranks 48th in economic outlook, 45th in GDP growth between 2000 and 2010, and 47th in its level of entrepreneurial activity. There is little opportunity left for Illinois’ families and entrepreneurs to succeed. And...

Illinois loses one resident every 10 minutes to net out-migration.

It should be no surprise that people are fleeing Illinois. Illinois ranks 48th in economic outlook, 45th in GDP growth between 2000 and 2010, and 47th in its level of entrepreneurial activity. There is little opportunity left for Illinois’ families and entrepreneurs to succeed.

And Illinois has one of the worst population growth rates in the nation. Despite this, a recent State Journal-Register column tries to paint a different picture:

Recently, in back-to-back editions, this page lent space to two outside opinion writers whose work contained faulty information that I fear perpetuates a myth about our state. As a result, I felt compelled to write and point out that, for the record, Illinois is not losing population.

You don’t have to take my word for it. Thankfully, we have an entity in America that exists solely to count people — the U.S. Census Bureau. When the Census Bureau released its official tally of Illinois’ population for 2010, our state had 12,830,632 residents. That is an increase of 411,000 from 2000. 

The statement is correct. But using raw population numbers doesn’t tell the whole story. The more important question is: What is Illinois’ population doing compared with the rest of nation?

Illinois had the eighth-lowest population growth in the nation between 2002 and 2012. And compared with its neighbors, Illinois’ population growth is abysmal.

But how Illinois’ population growth stacks up compared with the rest of the nation still doesn’t tell the whole story because it misses the issue of domestic migration. WBEZ points to this issue in its analysis of Chicago-area population trends:

We’re a big exporter of population, Chicago-based demographer Rob Paral said. The only thing that offsets it is immigration. Indeed, if the economy spurred even more native-born people to leave the area, it would take [the] flat growth into negative territory.

The state of Illinois has been experiencing net out-migration for the last decade. That is, the number of people choosing to leave the state is outpacing the number of people moving to Illinois.

When it comes to Illinois’ population trends the fact is this – Illinois’ dire financial situation and lack of opportunity for businesses and individuals has resulted in population growth that severely lags the nation. It has also led to annual waves of net out-migration.